Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Karen Khachanov
To win
+$46.20
Total payout
$66.20
Joint prob
32.0%
Combined odds
3.31
Fair odds
3.13
Edge
+5.9%
Expected value: +$1.18 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.18 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.0% · fair market: 29.4% · edge: +8.7%
Model probabilities Felix Auger-Aliassime 68.0% · Karen Khachanov 32.0% Why Felix Auger-Aliassime is favoured Felix Auger-Aliassime's Elo (1815) is +252 over Karen Khachanov (1563); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 87.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 32.0% vs market 29.4% (edge +8.7%, suggested Kelly +2.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.