Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Bianca Andreescu
To win
+$23.80
Total payout
$43.80
Joint prob
59.1%
Combined odds
2.19
Fair odds
1.69
Edge
+29.4%
Expected value: +$5.88 on a $20 stake.
No material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags found in the last 14 days.
Expected value: +$5.88 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.1% · fair market: 43.8% · edge: +34.7%
Model probabilities Xiyu Wang 40.9% · Bianca Andreescu 59.1% Why Bianca Andreescu is favoured Xiyu Wang's Elo (1474) is +21 over Bianca Andreescu (1453); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 56.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 59.1% vs market 43.8% (edge +34.7%, suggested Kelly +24.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.