Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alexander Shevchenko
To win
+$22.60
Total payout
$42.60
Joint prob
63.7%
Combined odds
2.13
Fair odds
1.57
Edge
+35.7%
Expected value: +$7.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.7% · fair market: 45.1% · edge: +41.2%
Model probabilities Alexander Shevchenko 63.7% · Kyrian Jacquet 36.3% Why Alexander Shevchenko is favoured Alexander Shevchenko's Elo (1552) is +49 over Kyrian Jacquet (1503); medium confidence. +EV vs market home: model 63.7% vs market 45.1% (edge +41.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.