Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$5.80
Total payout
$25.80
Joint prob
81.4%
Combined odds
1.29
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
+5.0%
Expected value: +$1.01 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.01 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.4% · fair market: 75.5% · edge: +7.9%
Model probabilities Xiyu Wang 18.6% · Elina Svitolina 81.4% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1856) is +342 over Xiyu Wang (1514); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 8.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 18.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 81.4% vs market 75.5% (edge +7.9%, suggested Kelly +17.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.