Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Frances Tiafoe
To win
+$12.20
Total payout
$32.20
Joint prob
74.9%
Combined odds
1.61
Fair odds
1.33
Edge
+20.6%
Expected value: +$4.13 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.13 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.9% · fair market: 60.4% · edge: +24.0%
Model probabilities Lorenzo Sonego 25.1% · Frances Tiafoe 74.9% Why Frances Tiafoe is favoured Frances Tiafoe's Elo (1712) is +141 over Lorenzo Sonego (1571); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 21.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 74.9% vs market 60.4% (edge +24.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).