Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nuno Borges
To win
+$11.60
Total payout
$31.60
Joint prob
68.2%
Combined odds
1.58
Fair odds
1.47
Edge
+7.7%
Expected value: +$1.54 on a $20 stake.
Luciano Darderi has retired from two recent matches in the last 14 days due to injuries: a wrist injury at the Los Cabos Open on August 7, 2026, and a left-leg injury at the Canadian Open on August 5, 2026. These recent injuries are highly likely to impact his performance in the upcoming match against Nuno Borges. Additionally, Darderi was involved in a controversy on July 25, 2026, at the Estoril Open where he threw his racket multiple times without receiving a warning.
Luciano Darderi threw his racket three times without receiving a warning during a match at the Estoril Open, sparking controversy.
Expected value: +$1.54 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.2% · fair market: 61.7% · edge: +10.4%
Model probabilities Nuno Borges 68.2% · Luciano Darderi 31.8% Why Nuno Borges is favoured Nuno Borges's Elo (1598) is +69 over Luciano Darderi (1530); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 68.2% vs market 61.7% (edge +10.4%, suggested Kelly +13.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.