Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Magda Linette
To win
+$36.40
Total payout
$56.40
Joint prob
42.0%
Combined odds
2.82
Fair odds
2.38
Edge
+18.5%
Expected value: +$3.70 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.70 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 42.0% · fair market: 34.4% · edge: +22.1%
Model probabilities Magda Linette 42.0% · Katerina Siniakova 58.0% Why Katerina Siniakova is favoured Katerina Siniakova's Elo (1602) is +23 over Magda Linette (1579); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 43.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 42.0% vs market 34.4% (edge +22.1%, suggested Kelly +10.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.