Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Naomi Osaka
To win
+$5.00
Total payout
$25.00
Joint prob
86.6%
Combined odds
1.25
Fair odds
1.15
Edge
+8.3%
Expected value: +$1.66 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.66 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 86.6% · fair market: 77.2% · edge: +12.2%
Model probabilities Maria Timofeeva 13.4% · Naomi Osaka 86.6% Why Naomi Osaka is favoured Naomi Osaka's Elo (1760) is +307 over Maria Timofeeva (1453); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 9.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 13.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 86.6% vs market 77.2% (edge +12.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.