Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katie Boulter
To win
+$100.00
Total payout
$120.00
Joint prob
16.8%
Combined odds
6.00
Fair odds
5.95
Edge
+0.8%
Expected value: +$0.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 16.8% · fair market: 15.6% · edge: +7.6%
Model probabilities Karolina Muchova 83.2% · Katie Boulter 16.8% Why Karolina Muchova is favoured Karolina Muchova's Elo (1883) is +295 over Katie Boulter (1588); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 83.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 16.8% vs market 15.6% (edge +7.6%, suggested Kelly +0.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.