Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Miomir Kecmanovic
To win
+$22.80
Total payout
$42.80
Joint prob
46.4%
Combined odds
2.14
Fair odds
2.16
Edge
-0.7%
Expected value: $-0.15 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.15 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.4% · fair market: 44.8% · edge: +3.4%
Model probabilities Juan Manuel Cerundolo 53.6% · Miomir Kecmanovic 46.4% Why Juan Manuel Cerundolo is favoured Juan Manuel Cerundolo's Elo (1549) is +16 over Miomir Kecmanovic (1533); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 54.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 46.4% vs market 44.8% (edge +3.4%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.