Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaime Faria
To win
+$17.80
Total payout
$37.80
Joint prob
55.5%
Combined odds
1.89
Fair odds
1.80
Edge
+5.0%
Expected value: +$1.00 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.5% · fair market: 51.4% · edge: +8.0%
Model probabilities Jaime Faria 55.5% · Arthur Fery 44.5% Why Jaime Faria is favoured Jaime Faria's Elo (1547) is +36 over Arthur Fery (1512); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 60.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 55.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 55.5% vs market 51.4% (edge +8.0%, suggested Kelly +5.6% of bankroll).