Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Polina Iatcenko
To win
+$32.60
Total payout
$52.60
Joint prob
43.4%
Combined odds
2.63
Fair odds
2.30
Edge
+14.3%
Expected value: +$2.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 43.4% · fair market: 36.6% · edge: +18.6%
Model probabilities Polina Iatcenko 43.4% · Claire Liu 56.6% Calibration Raw model: 61.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 43.4% vs market 36.6% (edge +18.6%, suggested Kelly +8.8% of bankroll).