Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Aryna Sabalenka
To win
+$3.00
Total payout
$23.00
Joint prob
92.2%
Combined odds
1.15
Fair odds
1.08
Edge
+6.0%
Expected value: +$1.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 92.2% · fair market: 80.7% · edge: +14.3%
Model probabilities Nikola Bartunkova 7.8% · Aryna Sabalenka 92.2% Why Aryna Sabalenka is favoured Aryna Sabalenka's Elo (2045) is +446 over Nikola Bartunkova (1599); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 4.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 7.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 92.2% vs market 80.7% (edge +14.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.