▸ Sealed before kickoff3.6h before kickoff2026-08-04 20:33 UTC· result settled — verifiable
49%
Moderate confidence
ratings essentially level · strong sample · confident top pick
How the model did
Final
1 — 0
Luciano Darderi won
✕ Model was wrong
Model assigned
30.5%
to luciano darderi
Model's top pick
away
top probability
Brier (↓ better)
0.965
Log loss (↓ better)
1.186
Graded Aug 5, 2026 · 04:03
Form & matchup
Luciano Darderi
Elo 1531
No recent matches on file.
Gabriel Diallo
Elo 1548
No recent matches on file.
Rating edge
Gabriel Diallo +17
Confidence: 100%
Head to head
No prior meetings on file.
Rest days
Luciano Darderi
–
Gabriel Diallo
–
Model probability
v0.1.0-elo-logistic ·
Luciano Darderi
30.5%
Gabriel Diallo
69.5%
0 priced, 11 markets without prices hidden
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Reasoning
Model probabilities
Luciano Darderi 30.5% · Gabriel Diallo 69.5%
Why Gabriel Diallo is favoured
Gabriel Diallo's Elo (1567) is +75 over Luciano Darderi (1492); high confidence.
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