Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Gea
To win
+$21.60
Total payout
$41.60
Joint prob
53.5%
Combined odds
2.08
Fair odds
1.87
Edge
+11.4%
Expected value: +$2.27 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.27 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.5% · fair market: 44.5% · edge: +20.2%
Model probabilities Michael Zheng 46.5% · Arthur Gea 53.5% Why Arthur Gea is favoured Michael Zheng's Elo (1549) is +15 over Arthur Gea (1534); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 54.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.5% vs market 44.5% (edge +20.2%, suggested Kelly +10.5% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.