Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Clara Tauson
To win
+$17.60
Total payout
$37.60
Joint prob
65.2%
Combined odds
1.88
Fair odds
1.53
Edge
+22.6%
Expected value: +$4.51 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.51 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.2% · fair market: 51.4% · edge: +26.8%
Model probabilities Peyton Stearns 34.8% · Clara Tauson 65.2% Why Clara Tauson is favoured Clara Tauson's Elo (1598) is +26 over Peyton Stearns (1572); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 42.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 34.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 65.2% vs market 51.4% (edge +26.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).