Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kei Nishikori
To win
+$40.60
Total payout
$60.60
Joint prob
66.8%
Combined odds
3.03
Fair odds
1.50
Edge
+102.4%
Expected value: +$20.47 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$20.47 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 66.8% · fair market: 31.6% · edge: +111.3%
Model probabilities Michael Zheng 33.2% · Kei Nishikori 66.8% +EV vs market away: model 66.8% vs market 31.6% (edge +111.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).