Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Botic van de Zandschulp
To win
+$27.80
Total payout
$47.80
Joint prob
48.3%
Combined odds
2.39
Fair odds
2.07
Edge
+15.4%
Expected value: +$3.08 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.08 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.3% · fair market: 40.7% · edge: +18.6%
Model probabilities Ugo Humbert 51.7% · Botic van de Zandschulp 48.3% Why Ugo Humbert is favoured Elo essentially level (1657 vs 1649) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market away: model 48.3% vs market 40.7% (edge +18.6%, suggested Kelly +11.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.