Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Filip Misolic
To win
+$172.60
Total payout
$192.60
Joint prob
25.3%
Combined odds
9.63
Fair odds
3.95
Edge
+143.8%
Expected value: +$28.77 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$28.77 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 25.3% · fair market: 10.0% · edge: +153.2%
Model probabilities Filip Misolic 25.3% · Francisco Cerundolo 74.7% Why Francisco Cerundolo is favoured Francisco Cerundolo's Elo (1665) is +200 over Filip Misolic (1465); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 15.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 25.3% vs market 10.0% (edge +153.2%, suggested Kelly +16.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.