Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaime Faria
To win
+$32.20
Total payout
$52.20
Joint prob
53.5%
Combined odds
2.61
Fair odds
1.87
Edge
+39.6%
Expected value: +$7.91 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.91 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.5% · fair market: 37.1% · edge: +44.1%
Model probabilities Arthur Gea 46.5% · Jaime Faria 53.5% Why Jaime Faria is favoured Jaime Faria's Elo (1534) is +14 over Arthur Gea (1520); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market away: model 53.5% vs market 37.1% (edge +44.1%, suggested Kelly +24.6% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.