Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Belinda Bencic
To win
+$8.60
Total payout
$28.60
Joint prob
77.5%
Combined odds
1.43
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+10.9%
Expected value: +$2.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.5% · fair market: 63.8% · edge: +21.5%
Model probabilities Belinda Bencic 77.5% · Ann Li 22.5% Why Belinda Bencic is favoured Belinda Bencic's Elo (1803) is +210 over Ann Li (1592); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 84.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 77.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 77.5% vs market 63.8% (edge +21.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.