Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 82.7% · fair market: 83.0% · edge: -0.4%
Model probabilities Daniil Medvedev 82.7% · Jan-Lennard Struff 17.3% Why Daniil Medvedev is favoured Daniil Medvedev's Elo (1785) is +287 over Jan-Lennard Struff (1499); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 82.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.