Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Benjamin Bonzi
To win
+$23.20
Total payout
$43.20
Joint prob
51.1%
Combined odds
2.16
Fair odds
1.96
Edge
+10.3%
Expected value: +$2.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 51.1% · fair market: 41.1% · edge: +24.1%
Model probabilities Benjamin Bonzi 51.1% · Ignacio Buse 48.9% Why Benjamin Bonzi is favoured Benjamin Bonzi's Elo (1538) is +48 over Ignacio Buse (1490); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 63.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 51.1% vs market 41.1% (edge +24.2%, suggested Kelly +8.9% of bankroll).