Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Barbora Krejcikova
To win
+$13.40
Total payout
$33.40
Joint prob
82.3%
Combined odds
1.67
Fair odds
1.21
Edge
+37.4%
Expected value: +$7.49 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.49 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 82.3% · fair market: 58.0% · edge: +41.8%
Model probabilities Liudmila Samsonova 17.7% · Barbora Krejcikova 82.3% Why Barbora Krejcikova is favoured Barbora Krejcikova's Elo (1742) is +177 over Liudmila Samsonova (1565); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 82.3% vs market 58.0% (edge +41.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).