Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Flavio Cobolli
To win
+$18.20
Total payout
$38.20
Joint prob
72.0%
Combined odds
1.91
Fair odds
1.39
Edge
+37.5%
Expected value: +$7.50 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.50 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.0% · fair market: 50.9% · edge: +41.4%
Model probabilities Roman Safiullin 28.0% · Flavio Cobolli 72.0% Why Flavio Cobolli is favoured Flavio Cobolli's Elo (1641) is +105 over Roman Safiullin (1536); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 28.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 72.0% vs market 50.9% (edge +41.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).