Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Reese Brantmeier
To win
+$19.20
Total payout
$39.20
Joint prob
54.7%
Combined odds
1.96
Fair odds
1.83
Edge
+7.2%
Expected value: +$1.45 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.45 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 54.7% · fair market: 49.6% · edge: +10.3%
Model probabilities Oleksandra Oliynykova 45.3% · Reese Brantmeier 54.7% Calibration Raw model: 52.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 54.7% vs market 49.6% (edge +10.3%, suggested Kelly +7.5% of bankroll).