Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elizabeth Mandlik
To win
+$24.60
Total payout
$44.60
Joint prob
48.5%
Combined odds
2.23
Fair odds
2.06
Edge
+8.1%
Expected value: +$1.62 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.62 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.5% · fair market: 43.0% · edge: +12.8%
Model probabilities Oksana Selekhmeteva 51.5% · Elizabeth Mandlik 48.5% Why Oksana Selekhmeteva is favoured Oksana Selekhmeteva's Elo (1510) is +121 over Elizabeth Mandlik (1389); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 48.5% vs market 43.0% (edge +12.8%, suggested Kelly +6.6% of bankroll).