Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Quentin Halys
To win
+$94.80
Total payout
$114.80
Joint prob
25.4%
Combined odds
5.74
Fair odds
3.94
Edge
+45.8%
Expected value: +$9.16 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.16 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 25.4% · fair market: 17.1% · edge: +48.9%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 74.6% · Quentin Halys 25.4% Why Alexander Zverev is favoured Alexander Zverev's Elo (1883) is +368 over Quentin Halys (1515); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 93.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 74.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 25.4% vs market 17.1% (edge +48.9%, suggested Kelly +9.7% of bankroll).