Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katherine Sebov
To win
+$314.00
Total payout
$334.00
Joint prob
10.0%
Combined odds
16.70
Fair odds
10.02
Edge
+66.7%
Expected value: +$13.33 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$13.33 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 10.0% · fair market: 5.8% · edge: +71.8%
Marta Kostyuk, currently ranked World No. 11, is on the verge of breaking into the top 10. Her last reported match was a semifinal loss at Wimbledon in early July.
Lineup: Marta Kostyuk is expected to start the match.
Katherine Sebov, a Canadian wild card entry, recently secured a first-round victory at her home tournament, the National Bank Open. She is currently ranked 231 in the WTA.
Lineup: Katherine Sebov is expected to start the match.
“Marta Kostyuk faces Katherine Sebov at the WTA Canadian Open, with Sebov entering with recent home-tournament victory momentum.”
Model probabilities Marta Kostyuk 90.0% · Katherine Sebov 10.0% Why Marta Kostyuk is favoured Marta Kostyuk's Elo (1786) is +297 over Katherine Sebov (1488); medium confidence. +EV vs market away: model 10.0% vs market 5.8% (edge +71.8%, suggested Kelly +4.2% of bankroll). News context Marta Kostyuk faces Katherine Sebov at the WTA Canadian Open, with Sebov entering with recent home-tournament victory momentum. Marta Kostyuk: Marta Kostyuk, currently ranked World No. 11, is on the verge of breaking into the top 10. Her last reported match was a semifinal loss at Wimbledon in early July. Katherine Sebov: Katherine Sebov, a Canadian wild card entry, recently secured a first-round victory at her home tournament, the National Bank Open. She is currently ranked 231 in the WTA.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.