Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alexandra Eala
To win
+$22.60
Total payout
$42.60
Joint prob
72.5%
Combined odds
2.13
Fair odds
1.38
Edge
+54.3%
Expected value: +$10.87 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.87 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.5% · fair market: 45.7% · edge: +58.7%
Model probabilities Iva Jović 27.5% · Alexandra Eala 72.5% Why Alexandra Eala is favoured Alexandra Eala's Elo (1696) is +161 over Iva Jović (1535); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 19.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 72.5% vs market 45.7% (edge +58.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.