Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Adrian Mannarino
To win
+$17.60
Total payout
$37.60
Joint prob
69.1%
Combined odds
1.88
Fair odds
1.45
Edge
+30.0%
Expected value: +$5.99 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.99 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.1% · fair market: 51.5% · edge: +34.1%
Model probabilities Adrian Mannarino 69.1% · Nikoloz Basilashvili 30.9% Why Adrian Mannarino is favoured Adrian Mannarino's Elo (1502) is +99 over Nikoloz Basilashvili (1403); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 73.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 69.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 69.1% vs market 51.5% (edge +34.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.