Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex de Minaur
To win
+$7.60
Total payout
$27.60
Joint prob
81.5%
Combined odds
1.38
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
+12.5%
Expected value: +$2.50 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.50 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.5% · fair market: 70.3% · edge: +15.9%
Model probabilities Alex de Minaur 81.5% · Alex Molcan 18.5% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1785) is +237 over Alex Molcan (1548); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 86.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 81.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 81.5% vs market 70.3% (edge +15.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.