Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Clara Tauson
To win
+$16.60
Total payout
$36.60
Joint prob
62.1%
Combined odds
1.83
Fair odds
1.61
Edge
+13.6%
Expected value: +$2.72 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.72 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.1% · fair market: 52.7% · edge: +17.8%
Model probabilities Clara Tauson 62.1% · Nikola Bartunkova 37.9% Why Clara Tauson is favoured Clara Tauson's Elo (1616) is +42 over Nikola Bartunkova (1574); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 62.1% vs market 52.7% (edge +17.8%, suggested Kelly +16.4% of bankroll).