Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Oleksandra Oliynykova
To win
+$127.60
Total payout
$147.60
Joint prob
27.4%
Combined odds
7.38
Fair odds
3.65
Edge
+102.1%
Expected value: +$20.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$20.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 27.4% · fair market: 13.2% · edge: +107.8%
Model probabilities Oleksandra Oliynykova 27.4% · Alexandra Eala 72.6% Why Alexandra Eala is favoured Alexandra Eala's Elo (1687) is +164 over Oleksandra Oliynykova (1523); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 18.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 27.4% vs market 11.9% (edge +129.8%, suggested Kelly +17.2% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.