Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tallon Griekspoor
To win
+$18.40
Total payout
$38.40
Joint prob
60.2%
Combined odds
1.92
Fair odds
1.66
Edge
+15.6%
Expected value: +$3.13 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.13 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.2% · fair market: 50.6% · edge: +18.9%
Model probabilities Lorenzo Sonego 39.8% · Tallon Griekspoor 60.2% Why Tallon Griekspoor is favoured Tallon Griekspoor's Elo (1605) is +35 over Lorenzo Sonego (1570); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 60.2% vs market 50.6% (edge +18.9%, suggested Kelly +17.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.