Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Zizou Bergs
To win
+$10.60
Total payout
$30.60
Joint prob
77.7%
Combined odds
1.53
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+19.0%
Expected value: +$3.79 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.79 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.7% · fair market: 60.9% · edge: +27.7%
Model probabilities Zizou Bergs 77.7% · Sebastian Baez 22.3% Why Zizou Bergs is favoured Zizou Bergs's Elo (1609) is +131 over Sebastian Baez (1478); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 77.7% vs market 60.9% (edge +27.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.