Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 37.1% · fair market: 37.6% · edge: -1.4%
Model probabilities Jasmine Paolini 37.1% · Sorana Cirstea 62.9% Why Sorana Cirstea is favoured Sorana Cirstea's Elo (1745) is +50 over Jasmine Paolini (1695); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 35.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 37.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.