Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marco Trungelliti
To win
+$37.80
Total payout
$57.80
Joint prob
52.3%
Combined odds
2.89
Fair odds
1.91
Edge
+51.0%
Expected value: +$10.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.3% · fair market: 33.4% · edge: +56.4%
Model probabilities Hamad Medjedovic 47.7% · Marco Trungelliti 52.3% Why Marco Trungelliti is favoured Hamad Medjedovic's Elo (1535) is +79 over Marco Trungelliti (1456); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 70.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 52.3% vs market 33.4% (edge +56.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).