Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katerina Siniakova
To win
+$7.60
Total payout
$27.60
Joint prob
74.4%
Combined odds
1.38
Fair odds
1.34
Edge
+2.7%
Expected value: +$0.55 on a $20 stake.
Katerina Siniakova recently retired from her Toronto opener on August 5, 2026, due to a shoulder injury, raising questions about her current fitness for the WTA Cincinnati Open. Maria Timofeeva entered the tournament as an alternate and suffered a heavy loss in her last recorded match in Prague, potentially indicating a dip in form.
Expected value: +$0.55 on a $20 stake.
Market: PMU (FR) ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.4% · fair market: 67.4% · edge: +10.5%
Model probabilities Maria Timofeeva 25.6% · Katerina Siniakova 74.4% Why Katerina Siniakova is favoured Katerina Siniakova's Elo (1610) is +132 over Maria Timofeeva (1477); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 22.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 74.4% vs market 67.4% (edge +10.5%, suggested Kelly +7.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.