Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sofia Kenin
To win
+$148.20
Total payout
$168.20
Joint prob
36.2%
Combined odds
8.41
Fair odds
2.76
Edge
+204.5%
Expected value: +$40.90 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$40.90 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 36.2% · fair market: 11.4% · edge: +218.1%
Model probabilities Marta Kostyuk 63.8% · Sofia Kenin 36.2% Why Marta Kostyuk is favoured Marta Kostyuk's Elo (1793) is +310 over Sofia Kenin (1483); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 90.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 63.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 36.2% vs market 11.4% (edge +218.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.