Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kamilla Rakhimova
To win
+$66.00
Total payout
$86.00
Joint prob
45.2%
Combined odds
4.30
Fair odds
2.21
Edge
+94.1%
Expected value: +$18.83 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$18.83 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 45.2% · fair market: 22.1% · edge: +104.3%
Model probabilities Iva Jović 54.8% · Kamilla Rakhimova 45.2% Why Iva Jović is favoured Iva Jović's Elo (1547) is +33 over Kamilla Rakhimova (1514); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 59.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 45.2% vs market 22.1% (edge +104.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.