Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Matteo Berrettini
To win
+$12.40
Total payout
$32.40
Joint prob
70.9%
Combined odds
1.62
Fair odds
1.41
Edge
+14.8%
Expected value: +$2.97 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.97 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.9% · fair market: 60.3% · edge: +17.6%
Model probabilities Matteo Berrettini 70.9% · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 29.1% Why Matteo Berrettini is favoured Matteo Berrettini's Elo (1646) is +135 over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (1511); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 78.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 70.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 70.9% vs market 60.3% (edge +17.6%, suggested Kelly +24.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.