Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jessica Pegula
To win
+$8.20
Total payout
$28.20
Joint prob
88.5%
Combined odds
1.41
Fair odds
1.13
Edge
+24.8%
Expected value: +$4.95 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.95 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 88.5% · fair market: 69.0% · edge: +28.2%
Jessica Pegula, the defending champion, has started her 2026 Canadian Open campaign with back-to-back wins despite a quick turnaround from reaching the DC Open final. She has a strong history at this tournament, having reached at least the semifinals in four of her previous five main-draw appearances.
Lineup: Jessica Pegula is expected to start and is currently in the fourth round of the Canadian Open.
Diana Shnaider has carried her recent momentum into the Canadian Open, advancing to the round of 16 after winning two matches. She recently reached the semifinals in Washington and achieved her best Grand Slam result by reaching the semifinals at Roland Garros.
Lineup: Diana Shnaider is expected to start and is currently in the fourth round of the Canadian Open.
“Jessica Pegula and Diana Shnaider set for Canadian Open clash after strong starts in Toronto, with Pegula holding a dominant head-to-head record.”
Model probabilities Jessica Pegula 88.5% · Diana Shnaider 11.5% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1931) is +268 over Diana Shnaider (1663); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 88.5% vs market 69.0% (edge +28.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). News context Jessica Pegula and Diana Shnaider set for Canadian Open clash after strong starts in Toronto, with Pegula holding a dominant head-to-head record. Jessica Pegula: Jessica Pegula, the defending champion, has started her 2026 Canadian Open campaign with back-to-back wins despite a quick turnaround from reaching the DC Open final. She has a strong history at this tournament, having reached at least the semifinals in four of her previous five main-draw appearances. Diana Shnaider: Diana Shnaider has carried her recent momentum into the Canadian Open, advancing to the round of 16 after winning two matches. She recently reached the semifinals in Washington and achieved her best Grand Slam result by reaching the semifinals at Roland Garros.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.