Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maya Joint
To win
+$128.80
Total payout
$148.80
Joint prob
28.5%
Combined odds
7.44
Fair odds
3.51
Edge
+111.9%
Expected value: +$22.39 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$22.39 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 28.5% · fair market: 13.1% · edge: +117.7%
Model probabilities Elina Svitolina 71.5% · Maya Joint 28.5% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1860) is +312 over Maya Joint (1548); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 90.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 71.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 28.5% vs market 13.1% (edge +117.7%, suggested Kelly +17.4% of bankroll).