Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Thanasi Kokkinakis
To win
+$12.20
Total payout
$32.20
Joint prob
73.8%
Combined odds
1.61
Fair odds
1.36
Edge
+18.8%
Expected value: +$3.75 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.75 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.8% · fair market: 59.5% · edge: +23.9%
Model probabilities Alexei Popyrin 26.2% · Thanasi Kokkinakis 73.8% Why Thanasi Kokkinakis is favoured Thanasi Kokkinakis's Elo (1611) is +100 over Alexei Popyrin (1510); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 73.8% vs market 59.5% (edge +23.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).