Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Daniil Medvedev
To win
+$17.00
Total payout
$37.00
Joint prob
69.9%
Combined odds
1.85
Fair odds
1.43
Edge
+29.4%
Expected value: +$5.87 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.87 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.9% · fair market: 52.4% · edge: +33.3%
Model probabilities Brandon Nakashima 30.1% · Daniil Medvedev 69.9% Why Daniil Medvedev is favoured Daniil Medvedev's Elo (1801) is +123 over Brandon Nakashima (1678); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 23.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 30.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 69.9% vs market 52.4% (edge +33.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.