Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Pablo Carreno Busta
To win
+$25.60
Total payout
$45.60
Joint prob
65.4%
Combined odds
2.28
Fair odds
1.53
Edge
+49.1%
Expected value: +$9.82 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.82 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.4% · fair market: 42.6% · edge: +53.6%
Model probabilities Mariano Navone 34.6% · Pablo Carreno Busta 65.4% Why Pablo Carreno Busta is favoured Pablo Carreno Busta's Elo (1526) is +72 over Mariano Navone (1454); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 31.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 34.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 65.4% vs market 42.6% (edge +53.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.