Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Liam Draxl
To win
+$25.40
Total payout
$45.40
Joint prob
50.0%
Combined odds
2.27
Fair odds
2.00
Edge
+13.5%
Expected value: +$2.70 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.70 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.0% · fair market: 42.8% · edge: +16.8%
Model probabilities Daniel Merida Aguilar 50.0% · Liam Draxl 50.0% Why Daniel Merida Aguilar is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. +EV vs market away: model 50.0% vs market 42.8% (edge +16.8%, suggested Kelly +10.6% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.