Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tomas Machac
To win
+$31.80
Total payout
$51.80
Joint prob
41.1%
Combined odds
2.59
Fair odds
2.44
Edge
+6.3%
Expected value: +$1.27 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.27 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 41.1% · fair market: 37.4% · edge: +9.7%
Model probabilities Alexander Bublik 58.9% · Tomas Machac 41.1% Why Alexander Bublik is favoured Alexander Bublik's Elo (1677) is +39 over Tomas Machac (1637); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 61.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 58.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 41.1% vs market 37.4% (edge +9.7%, suggested Kelly +4.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.