Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera
To win
+$34.60
Total payout
$54.60
Joint prob
56.7%
Combined odds
2.73
Fair odds
1.76
Edge
+54.9%
Expected value: +$10.97 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.97 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.7% · fair market: 35.2% · edge: +61.4%
Model probabilities Aleksandar Vukic 43.3% · Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera 56.7% +EV vs market away: model 56.7% vs market 35.2% (edge +61.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).